Design of China’s ice-class fleet scale and economic viability assessment under normalized operation of the Northeast Passage

Jiaojiao, Hou and Maixiu, Hu (2025) Design of China’s ice-class fleet scale and economic viability assessment under normalized operation of the Northeast Passage. Advances in Polar Science, 36 (3). pp. 213-228.

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Abstract

Global warming has led to a gradual extension of the navigable window for the Arctic Route, providing a realistic possibility for the normalized commercial operation of the Northeast Passage (NEP). Based on the changes in the navigable window of the NEP, Russia’s proposed nuclear-powered icebreaker construction scheme, and China’s potential development of a moderately sized ice-class fleet, this study establishes three scenarios for the commercial operation of the NEP. These scenarios include: (a) normalized summer operational scenario (from July to October each year), (b) normalized summerautumn operational scenario (from June to January of the following year), and (c) normalized year-round operational scenario (12 months per year). The cargo transportation potential of the NEP under three normalized operational scenarios was predicted based on the grey prediction model. On this basis, construction scale plans for China’s ice-class fleet to meet cargo transportation demands under the three normalized operational scenarios were designed. The economic benefits of different plans were evaluated using a profit-maximization linear programming model. The research results show the following: (1) The cargo transportation potential of the NEP demonstrates a rapid growth trend in the future, with annual throughput under year-round normalized operations expected to exceed 100 million tonnes and reach 297 million tonnes. (2) Under different normalized operational scenarios, the fleet scale and vessel type composition vary. Under the normalized summer operational scenario, the optimal scale for China’s ice-class fleet is 20 vessels, consisting solely of ships classed as PC7 by the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS). Under the normalized summer-autumn operational scenario, the optimal fleet scale is 31 vessels, including 30 IACS PC7 ships and 1 IACS PC3 ship. Under the normalized year-round operational scenario, the optimal fleet scale is 45 vessels, composed of 30 IACS PC7 ships, 8 IACS PC3 ships, and 7 IACS PC2 ships. (3) Among the three normalized operational scenarios, the normalized year-round operational scenario yields the best economic benefits for the fleet scale, while the normalized summer operational scenario yields the lowest economic benefits.

Item Type:	Article
Related URLs:
Keywords:	ice-class fleet, linear programming, the Northeast Passage (NEP), normalized operation
Subjects:	Natural Resources and Industry > Shipping
Organizations:	Advances in Polar Science (APS)
Date Deposited:	19 Nov 2025 10:29
URI:	https://library.arcticportal.org/id/eprint/2906

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