Navigability of Arctic sea routes in the 21st century based on CMIP6

Mengrui, Li and Shuhan, Hu and Qianhui, Gao and Ruichang, Ding and Chuanhu, Zhao and Fei, Huang (2025) Navigability of Arctic sea routes in the 21st century based on CMIP6. Advances in Polar Science, 36 (3). pp. 246-264.

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Abstract

Under ongoing global warming, reliable projections of Arctic sea-ice conditions and future navigability are of strategic significance. Using a combination of observational and physical constraints, we systematically evaluated the performance of 48 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating Arctic sea ice and selected 12 skillful models for detailed analysis. Navigability of the Northeast Passage (NEP), Northwest Passage (NWP), and Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) during 2015–2100 was assessed under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Results indicate that for open water vessels under the SSP2-4.5, TSR is not projected to become navigable until 2029. In contrast, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, both NWP and NEP are expected to support year-round navigation by the late 21st century, while TSR is not anticipated to become fully operational until after 2090. Polar Class 6 vessels achieve near year-round navigation by 2100 under SSP2-4.5, and full-year operation as early as 2048 under SSP5-8.5.

Item Type:	Article
Related URLs:
Keywords:	Arctic sea ice, CMIP6, SSP, model evaluation, Arctic navigability
Subjects:	Natural Environment > Cryosphere Natural Environment > Oceans
Organizations:	Advances in Polar Science (APS)
Date Deposited:	20 Nov 2025 12:52
URI:	https://library.arcticportal.org/id/eprint/2909

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